The Refinancing Cliff Map

One question, one screen: if each company refinanced the debt coming due in the next 24 months at today's market yields, how much would its annual interest bill rise — and what share of operating income would that consume? Names in the upper-left face expensive walls, soon. Bubble size is the amount of debt due within 24 months. Click any bubble for the full calculation.

Market yields: ICE BofA US Corporate & High Yield effective yields by rating bucket (via FRED, as of 2026-07-23). Rating buckets are synthetic — estimated from interest coverage — and the shock is an index-level approximation, not issuer-level bond pricing. How this is computed →

AAA yield

5.33%

A yield

5.29%

BBB yield

5.62%

BB yield

6.09%

B yield

7.35%

CCC yield

14.25%

Months to the wall vs. cost of crossing it

Y-axis: estimated annual interest increase from refinancing 24-month maturities at market yields, as % of operating income. X-axis: months until the first meaningful maturity bucket.

What if yields move? all yields +0 bps

High risk score Medium Low Bubble size = debt due within 24 months

Most expensive walls first

Company	Due ≤24mo	Current avg rate	Market yield	Est. added interest	% of op. income
On Semiconductor ON · est. BBB	$1.5B	2.5%	5.6%	+$47M/yr	56.0%
American Airlines Group AAL · est. CCC	$8.1B	8.5%	14.2%	+$466M/yr	31.8%
Alaska Air Group ALK · est. A	$1.1B	2.2%	5.3%	+$35M/yr	11.5%
Warner Bros. Discovery WBD · est. B	$16.6B	6.8%	7.3%	+$85M/yr	11.5%
Diamondback Energy FANG · est. AA	$2.7B	1.8%	5.3%	+$94M/yr	7.4%
Microchip Technology MCHP · est. BBB	$1.4B	3.6%	5.6%	+$28M/yr	5.7%
Equinix EQIX · est. AA	$2.5B	2.0%	5.3%	+$82M/yr	4.4%
Eversource Energy ES · est. BBB	$4.3B	3.0%	5.6%	+$111M/yr	3.7%
Wec Energy Group WEC · est. BBB	$3.7B	3.6%	5.6%	+$73M/yr	3.2%
Kroger KR · est. AA	$2.0B	2.9%	5.3%	+$48M/yr	2.5%
Cvs Health CVS · est. BB	$7.4B	4.6%	6.1%	+$113M/yr	2.4%
Tesla TSLA · est. AAA	$2.8B	1.7%	5.3%	+$101M/yr	2.3%
American Electric Power AEP · est. BBB	$5.6B	3.6%	5.6%	+$111M/yr	2.1%
Verizon Communications VZ · est. A	$26.8B	3.1%	5.3%	+$579M/yr	2.0%
Duke Energy DUK · est. BBB	$10.8B	4.2%	5.6%	+$156M/yr	1.8%
Illinois Tool Works ITW · est. AAA	$2.5B	2.6%	5.3%	+$67M/yr	1.6%
Cisco Systems CSCO · est. AAA	$4.5B	1.2%	5.3%	+$185M/yr	1.6%
Xcel Energy XEL · est. B	$1.0B	4.1%	7.3%	+$32M/yr	1.2%
Dell Technologies DELL · est. A	$6.2B	3.9%	5.3%	+$88M/yr	1.1%
NXP Semiconductors N.V NXPI · est. AA	$2.2B	4.0%	5.3%	+$30M/yr	1.0%
Marvell Technology MRVL · est. A	$1.2B	4.3%	5.3%	+$13M/yr	1.0%
Target TGT · est. AAA	$2.1B	3.5%	5.3%	+$39M/yr	0.8%
Home Depot HD · est. AAA	$8.3B	3.9%	5.3%	+$116M/yr	0.6%
AbbVie ABBV · est. A	$11.1B	4.5%	5.3%	+$90M/yr	0.6%
Costco Wholesale Corp /New COST · est. AAA	$2.3B	2.6%	5.3%	+$62M/yr	0.6%
Consolidated Edison ED · est. BB	$1.0B	4.8%	6.1%	+$14M/yr	0.5%
PG&E PCG · est. B	$1.1B	5.0%	7.3%	+$26M/yr	0.5%
RTX RTX · est. A	$6.3B	4.5%	5.3%	+$48M/yr	0.5%
AT&T T · est. A	$17.6B	4.7%	5.3%	+$112M/yr	0.5%
Adobe ADBE · est. AAA	$850M	1.7%	5.3%	+$31M/yr	0.4%

What this is — and isn't

Each estimate uses only public inputs: the company's SEC-reported maturity schedule and interest expense, and index-level market yields. The current average rate is interest expense ÷ total interest-bearing debt; the market yield comes from the ICE BofA effective-yield index for the company's synthetic rating bucket (estimated from interest coverage). Actual new-issue pricing depends on the issuer's real ratings, tenor, security, and market conditions on the day.

Companies are excluded when the estimate would be unreliable: deposit-funded financials, stale or incomplete maturity schedules, implied current rates outside a sanity window, or less than $100M due within 24 months. The value of this screen is the ranking — which walls are expensive relative to earnings power — not any single point estimate.